Briefing | Brazil’s presidential election: Path to peril?

Brazil faces its most contentious presidential race in recent history. The two frontrunners,  incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, and former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, are both highly controversial figures. Bolsonaro has suggested that he will not accept defeat in the poll, suggesting that he would encourage his supporters to take to the streets if he loses. We anticipate that the re-election of Bolsonaro would also be likely to prompt large protests. Regardless of the result, this election will test Brazil’s democratic institutions.

In this briefing, Dragonfly’s subject matter specialists will provide their assessment of a possible crisis around the elections and discuss scenarios for how this could play out. They will also consider the security and strategic implications of the result into 2023. This will be largely based on findings from recent field research Dragonfly conducted in Brazil, involving conversations with multiple security, political, media and civil society contacts. The briefing will conclude with an opportunity for attendees to pose questions to our panel.

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